Disorganized global nuclear disarmament

 As we adventure further into the 21st 100 years, the once-hopeful idea of worldwide atomic demobilization has become obsolete despite raising worldwide instability. Tensions have only increased as a result of recent events, as has the looming threat of nuclear destruction. Outstandingly, in February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the suspension of his country's cooperation in the New Essential Arms Decrease Arrangement (New Beginning); the last agreement to control nuclear weapons. This has incited areas of strength for a from the US, which has stopped trading information on atomic powers. These developments highlight the increasing fragility of nuclear disarmament's future and cast doubt on the effectiveness of arms control agreements like the New START doctrine, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, the Outer Space Treaty, and the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The chief negotiator for New START, Rose Gottemoeller, has warned that the failure of the treaty between the world's two nuclear superpowers demonstrates that a new nuclear arms race is imminent. Nine nations still possessed approximately 12,500 warheads at the beginning of 2023, raising doubts about the possibility of nuclear disarmament in the future.

The way towards demobilization seems, by all accounts, to be flung with various obstructions. The United States withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 and the Open Skies Treaty in 2020, respectively, which severely hampered progress toward eliminating a whole class of nuclear missiles. In a similar vein, recent developments in Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus have raised the possibility of a nuclear conflict, prompting the United Nations to issue a warning that the risk of using nuclear weapons is greater than it has ever been since the Cold War.

Countries like Israel, which is expanding its nuclear facilities and intends to equip its submarines with nuclear weapons, are adding to the situation by expanding their nuclear arsenals. Concerns about the likelihood of a nuclear conflict in the Middle East have been raised as a result of this. In a similar vein, North Korea's progress in acquiring a nuclear weapon and readiness to use one before it is needed are cause for concern. Disarmament efforts are hampered by such actions from both North Korea and Israel.

In addition, China's complaint to the United Nations about the AUKUS deal reveals a flaw in the NPT, which prohibits the transfer of nuclear technology and fissile material between nuclear-armed and non-nuclear states. Numerous concerns regarding nuclear proliferation have been brought to light as a result.

In South Asia, Pakistan is particularly concerned about India's expanding nuclear arsenal, a similar trend is evident. India has entered into agreements with the United States, such as the Indo-US 123 agreement, involving the purchase of uranium enrichment and the trade of nuclear components. This agreement departs from the policy of the NPT.

Besides, India has been consistently improving its atomic abilities. It tested the Agni-Prime (Agni-P) missile in 2021, and in 2022, it tested Agni V, a land-based nuclear-capable Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). The nuclear triad that enables India to launch nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea is fully operational. Additionally, India's acquisition of sophisticated weapon systems like the S400 defense system and long-range submarine-launched ballistic missiles points to a trend of vertical proliferation, which raises concerns regarding the efficiency of nuclear non-proliferation regimes.

Pakistan, on the other hand, has taken an active role in preventing nuclear proliferation in South Asia. Pakistan previously proposed the Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR), which consists of three essential components: nuclear and missile restraint, preserving conventional equilibrium, and bolstering elements of conflict resolution. Pakistan's long-lasting agent to the UN has consistently repeated that Pakistan's proposal for SRR stays on the table, meaning to advance harmony and strength in the locale. SRR would effectively reduce arms production in response to India's growing threat. Pakistan ought to unquestionably maintain its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and its constructive role in South Asia.

Overall, the current global strategic environment is ripe for an arms race, posing the possibility of both horizontal and vertical proliferation. Mearsheimer made the insightful observation that states are being forced to take offensive measures to protect their interests as a result of structural shifts in the global order. The shadow of vulnerability looms over the world because of continuous occasions, accelerations, and incitements that are prodding a recharged weapons contest. To prevent further escalation, diplomatic engagement, cooperative initiatives, and measures to build confidence must take center stage at this crucial juncture. The current difficulties are impressive, however they should not stop the world from looking for reasonable arrangements.