The map of Eurasian geopolitics in the future

The map of Eurasian geopolitics in the future is being redrawn inexorably by powerful forces. The most recent of the significant developments that will have a significant impact on the development of Eurasian geopolitics is Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but it is not the only one.

Other developments that will radically alter the Eurasian geopolitical scene include China's dramatic rise, the expanding strategic partnership between China and Russia, the US policy of containment of China, India's emergence as a potential great power in the foreseeable future, China's growing economic and political penetration of Central Asia and the Persian Gulf region, and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East. Pakistan cannot evade the effects of these powerful forces. As a result, Pakistan's policymakers must also consider the effects of these forces on Pakistan's security and economic well-being when organizing domestic affairs.

At the Eurasian and global levels, the most significant strategic development and defining feature of the 21st century would be the growing rivalry between the United States and China. China's rise to economic and military power will be a serious threat to the international order, which was primarily established by the West, led by the US, after World War II to protect Western fundamental interests behind multilateral institutions like the UN, World Bank, and IMF. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that the Western powers hold the majority of power in these institutions. Without their consent or approval, no significant decision regarding the world economic order or international peace and security can be made. It will attempt to alter the current international order in order to accommodate its interests as soon as China's nominal GDP catches up to that of the United States and its military spending eventually surpasses America's.

As a result, China and the United States are likely to engage in a struggle for global supremacy in the coming decades, particularly in the second half of the 21st century, when China is expected to become the world's most powerful economic and military power. As a result, there will be more international tensions, more localized conflicts, re-alignment of alliances as nations seek the support of one or more in their quest for security, a growing influence of realpolitik, less authority for the United Nations to deal with major security issues, and a world in chaos. The Eurasia and Pacific regions will serve as the primary arenas in which the Sino-American rivalry will be waged globally.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has had mixed results from Russia's perspective, takes on a special significance in light of this. On the one hand, it has made NATO stronger, as evidenced by the accelerated admission of Sweden and Finland into the Alliance. On the other hand, it has made strategic US cooperation with Europe stronger because European nations now perceive Russia as a greater threat. On the other hand, presidents Putin and Xi Jinping have repeatedly reaffirmed that the increased tensions between the West and Russia have brought Beijing and Moscow strategically closer together. The most recent instance of this was at the SCO summit in Samarkand in September of this year. The growing strategic cooperation between China and Russia may also have the effect of reducing or eliminating US strategic influence in Central Asian states.

Because of their misfortunes at the hands of Ukrainian forces that were supported logistically by the West, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has brought to light the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the Russian armed forces. The Russian invasion of Ukraine's mixed results have also demonstrated the limitations of military power alone in achieving strategic goals. Instead, in order to achieve national objectives, a comprehensive strategy that incorporates the political, economic, military, and diplomatic facets of national power is required.

The United States' policy of containing China will have the greatest impact on Pakistan. At the recent meeting between President Biden and Xi Jinping in Bali, the rhetoric about the cold war subsided, but it is highly unlikely that the United States will change this policy anytime soon. In fact, in accordance with this policy, the US is expanding its strategic alliances with India, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, bolstering its pressure on China through issues like Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang, and employing selective economic sanctions to halt China's technological and economic development. Pakistan is forced to seek closer strategic cooperation with China to combat America's rapidly expanding multidimensional strategic cooperation with India, which upsets the strategic balance in South Asia in India's favor and poses a serious threat to Pakistan's security.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which President Xi Jinping first announced in 2013 while on a visit to Kazakhstan, primarily aims to develop China's economic and commercial links with Eurasian, Middle Eastern, and African nations while avoiding the US ally Singapore's Malacca strait. China invests a lot in the BRI to build trade routes and do economic projects in the countries that are participating, thereby promoting economic and commercial ties with those countries.

One of the most crucial components of the BRI is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which was officially launched in April 2015 during President Xi Jinping's visit to Pakistan and is expected to attract $62 billion in investment. According to the most recent information, projects worth $25 billion have already been completed or launched under the auspices of CPEC since 2015, providing Pakistan with the much-needed capital to accelerate its economic expansion.

Pakistan's policymakers face significant difficulties as a result of the emerging strategic realities in Eurasia. The right balance between strengthening our crucial strategic, security, and economic ties with China and maintaining friendly relationships and mutually beneficial cooperation with the United States and European nations is probably the most significant of these.

Second, in order to address the increasing threat to Pakistan's security posed by a Hindutva-ruled India, we must implement a prudent long-term strategy. Pakistan will have to primarily rely on its own national power, which includes political stability, economic and technological strength, military might, and proactive diplomacy, to deal with these issues and carefully select its allies in the turbulent times that lie ahead.