Statistics about the growth and increasing of inflation rate in Pakistan

  

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics' (PBS) inflation data is one of the best datasets in the country. It maintains excellent dissemination standards in addition to adhering to standards for data quality and its extensive coverage. Take a look at the various compiled indices: WPI, SPI, NCPI, UCPI, RCPI, UCPI-Trim, UCPI-Trim, UCPI-NFNE, and WPI

Consumer price indices include the sensitive price index (SPI), the wholesale price index (WPI), the core CPI (excluding food and energy), and the consumer price indices for the country's urban and rural areas. What are their thoughts on inflation? Is inflation our primary concern at all times? Inflation throughout the nation, but particularly in urban and rural areas?

As high inflation eats into their budgets and causes them harm, citizens are concerned. However, citizens may not be concerned with all of the aforementioned indicators. The SPI, which makes headlines each week, and the CPI for the entire nation are of the utmost significance to them.

It is beneficial for citizens to be informed of price changes. Shouldn't PBS inform us more frequently about GDP or real sector data? It could be argued that citizens have a good sense of day-to-day prices even in the absence of inflation data due to their daily shopping habits. However, they may have less knowledge of employment and growth data. As a result, dissemination of employment and growth data is more crucial. One of the goals of collecting and disseminating statistics is to inform citizens about economic activity. The ability of policymakers to balance these competing goals by analyzing the data and taking timely, appropriate measures to contain inflation and promote growth is a more important goal of growth and inflation data.

The development of suggestions or critiques by researchers and analysts with the intention of educating and directing citizens as well as policymakers is yet another significant objective. From this perspective, the indices that are beneficial to citizens, policymakers, and researchers all play a much bigger role.

In contrast, the national CPI is considered to be more significant. When making policy decisions, national policymakers—fiscal and monetary authorities—should place an emphasis on national growth and inflation numbers.

Statistics agencies are not governed by finance ministers in accordance with international best practices.

Two important indices are not included in the dissemination of the PBS and State Bank, despite the abundance of price statistics. These are connected to core inflation in the nation. While less significant regional core inflation measures are being disseminated and analyzed, one might wonder why these are missing.

It's possible that the State Bank is internally estimating measures of national core inflation; however, why it is not making the information public is puzzling. The fact that the central bank occasionally refers selectively in its reports to urban or rural CPI inflation when it should be referring to national CPI core inflation is also troubling. In their data releases, the PBS and State Bank ought to estimate and distribute figures for national core inflation.

There appears to be a lack of timely real sector data availability in comparison to the availability of price data in our nation. With a lag of one year, annual data on national income are made available. GDP is not compiled and made public every quarter. The quarterly GDP and employment data are frowned upon by our authorities, who appear content with the annual numbers. Their intense concern for rapid growth does not translate into a demand for data that is updated more frequently.

GDP is calculated and disseminated quarterly by 96 nations. The IMF's International Financial Statistics dataset lists Egypt, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Sri Lanka among them. We appear content to be among the roughly equal number of nations that only report their annual GDP. PBS deserves credit for beginning to compile and distribute quarterly national accounts in FY14.

However, it abruptly ended the practice, most likely at the government's direction. Probably for the same reason, it also put an end to its effort to conduct and distribute the quarterly Labor Force Survey's findings.

When compared to inflation data, the authorities' disdain for timely real sector data is surprising given their preference for growth over inflation control. As a result, we have data for large-scale manufacturing that PBS compiles monthly with a lag of approximately two months.

Researchers who typically base their analyses on quarterly GDP are forced to either use annual data or the LSM index as a proxy for economic growth as a whole. The fact that PBS has stopped compiling and disseminating quarterly GDP and employment data reveals governance issues that affect its scope of data compilation. The chair of PBS's governing council appears to be the source of the issue.

The finance minister serves as chairman of the PBS governing council in accordance with the General Statistics (Reorganisation) Act of 2011, which granted PBS a significant amount of autonomy. In addition to its other governing responsibilities, this council also has the authority to approve PBS's annual work plan.

The council's set of PBS-compiled statistics can be easily changed by the finance minister. Statistics agencies are not governed by finance ministers in accordance with international best practices. An expert statistician or economist from the private sector or academia would be ideal for this position.

The governing council is required by the act to "prepare and publish an annual report covering its activities carried out during the financial year for submission to the federal government, which shall lay the same before the parliament," according to the legislation. The PBS website does not feature any reports of this kind.

Additionally, the Statistics Act grants PBS authority to establish a users council to "advise on priorities for filling the gaps in statistical data" and carry out a variety of other guidance and advisory responsibilities. PBS never established such a council, which is supposed to include representatives from the private sector, and neither does its website mention it. PBS appears to be limited in its ability to fulfill the General Statistics Act's objectives in the absence of the users council and the finance minister on the governing council.