IT'S TIME TO BE PERSISTENT ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT.
The economy of Pakistan is entangled in a web of low growth, high inflation, and high unemployment. The lack of essential services required to run the country in an appropriate manner has resulted from the current poor economic climate.
With each passing day, the economic indicators become less reliable. Sources claim that the economy will only expand by 2% during the current fiscal year. Pakistan's economy has been struggling for a long time. The stakeholders have failed to treat Pakistan's economic collapse, despite the IMF's twenty bailout packages.
Poor economic conditions can be attributed to a variety of political and socioeconomic factors. As a result, the economic woes that led to Pakistan's current financial predicament are the result of certain factors.
A thorough investigation is required to determine what went wrong with Pakistan's economy. Future economic difficulties are the result of Pakistan's economy's structural flaws.
One of the major roadblocks to economic revival is loan repayment. External debt reached $34 billion in 2022, with the majority owed to China, Saudi Arabia, and the IMF.
In 2023, it is anticipated to expand further. Internally, Pakistan's economy is being woken up by circular and public debt.
Over the next five years, from 2022-23 to 2026-27, Pakistan will be required to repay $49.23 billion due to amortization and markup alone from the public sector.
Repaying a loan necessitates cutting back on unnecessary expenses and incrementally expanding trade.
In addition, Pakistan's CPEC project is a game-changer in its history; however, the remaining projects require significant investment to operate. However, it would be difficult for the stakeholders to carry it with a fragile economy.
More burden and financial strain have resulted from delayed and increasing loans from CPEC projects.
Due to Chinese companies' payment delays, numerous projects have been put on hold.
Pakistan's poor financial infrastructure has also contributed to economic instability. Investors won't be drawn in by market sentiments.
As a result, Chinese companies are investing a significant amount. The markets are the elite class's stronghold.
Due to their vested interests, they control major industries and exert political influence over markets.
Allies like Saudi Arabia and China appear to be of great assistance in foreign policy.
The vast sums of money provided by both nations are sufficient to restart the economy. Due to catastrophic climate events, the amounts provided by the partners have had no positive effect on the economy.
As a result, Pakistan faces additional economic challenges that necessitate thorough analysis in order to develop effective policies.
In this regard, political instability is one of the most important factors. Since Pakistan gained independence, political unrest has persisted in the country.
Consistency in economic policy has been undermined by political instability. Economic policies that aren't consistent don't work.
Due to polarized politics and vested political interests, previous policies are not implemented when power shifts from one party to another, despite their importance and necessity.
Our democracy may be further weakened by Imran Khan's recent decision to boycott the National Assembly, which may hinder the economy.
The rise of religious extremism is also a significant impediment to successful economic reform.
The state of law and order has deteriorated as a result of the recent rise in militancy and terrorist activities.
Some of the most recent examples include the incident at Bannu and the attack on a Chinese teacher in Karachi.
Problems with law and order impede foreign direct investment. Terrorist activities have lowered the confidence of foreign investors.
Due to the deteriorating state of law and order brought on by rising extremist tendencies, many foreign investors avoid investing in Pakistan and want to leave.
Pakistan's economy was crippled by the war on terrorism numerous times throughout history. As a result, Pakistan must take concrete steps to ensure long-term economic growth.
Through structural changes, the economy must be completely transformed. Pakistan requires export industry reforms in order to achieve long-term economic growth.
Pakistan has one of the lowest exports-to-GDP ratios in the world, according to the ADB's "Pakistan's Economy and Trade in the Age of Global Value Chain" report.
Agriculture, which is susceptible to climate disasters, is the foundation of a significant portion of the export industry.
Because agricultural products account for a significant portion of Pakistan's exports, the agriculture sector should receive priority.
To generate sufficient revenue, the government must concentrate on tax reforms that bring tax evaders into the tax net.
In addition, Pakistan should diplomatically utilize the Foreign Office to explore new partners for financial assistance in order to navigate the current economic mess.
In the era of bloc politics, this necessitates cooperative relationships that are solid and friendly. It is necessary to play safe and get rid of their dominance and a path of self-interest, regardless of whether it is Chinese, American, or Russian influence.
To begin a smooth transit trade, Pakistan must lastly resolve issues with its neighbors, particularly India and Afghanistan.
An era of low economic burdens can be heralded by friendly relations with India. It will save money on defense and open up trade with India, as a World Bank report from 2018 estimated that the two archrivals have $38 billion in trade potential.
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